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Through games of Mar 11, 2018.


George Mason

Conference:A10
Expected RPI:201.0
Current RPI:201
Expected SOS:168
Current SOS:168
Current Record:16-17
Expected Record:16-17
Current Conf Record:10-10
Expected Conf Record:10-10
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-3
Current OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC Record:6-7
Expected OOC RPI:253
Expected OOC SOS:223



RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
16-17201.0100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:


Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for George Mason.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocationScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Lafayette (311.0)PatH67-65W100%0.0
11-12Louisville (38.0)ACCA72-61L0%0.0
11-16Binghamton (320.0)AEH69-57W100%0.0
11-18Cal St. Northridge (340.0)BWH78-73W100%0.0
11-21Louisiana Tech (192.0)CUSAN64-77L0%0.0
11-22Fresno St. (103.0)MWCN79-73L0%0.0
11-29James Madison (272.0)CAAA72-76W100%0.0
12-3Auburn (15.0)SECA79-63L0%0.0
12-6William & Mary (94.0)CAAH70-77L0%0.0
12-9North Carolina Central (279.0)MEACH77-65W100%0.0
12-12Georgia Southern (140.0)SBH51-74L0%0.0
12-17Penn St. (77.0)B10H54-72L0%0.0
12-22Morgan St. (327.0)MEACH86-79W100%0.0
12-30Rhode Island (19.0)A10A83-64L0%0.0
1-3Massachusetts (240.0)A10A72-80W100%0.0
1-7Davidson (47.0)A10H59-86L0%0.0
1-10Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10H81-79W100%0.0
1-13Saint Louis (148.0)A10H86-81W100%0.0
1-17George Washington (195.0)A10A80-68L0%0.0
1-20Duquesne (259.0)A10A95-89L0%0.0
1-27VCU (135.0)A10H76-84L0%0.0
1-31St. Bonaventure (24.0)A10H69-85L0%0.0
2-3Richmond (176.0)A10A75-79W100%0.0
2-7Fordham (290.0)A10A67-66L0%0.0
2-10George Washington (195.0)A10H72-65W100%0.0
2-14Dayton (146.0)A10H85-67W100%0.0
2-17La Salle (202.0)A10A69-62L0%0.0
2-21Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10A76-79W100%0.0
2-24Massachusetts (240.0)A10H78-76W100%0.0
2-28VCU (135.0)A10A80-81W100%0.0
3-3Richmond (176.0)A10H79-93L0%0.0
3-8Massachusetts (240.0)A10N80-75W100%0.0
3-9Saint Joseph's (147.0)A10N68-49L0%0.0


Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

George Mason's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES


George Mason's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against  George Mason.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.



Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.


TeamConfCurr WgtFut WgtCurr W/LExp W/LCurr ImpactExp Impact
George MasonA1026.2126.2145.1645.16-2.54-2.54
MassachusettsA105.115.1143.3343.33-0.68-0.68
Saint Joseph'sA105.115.1151.7251.720.180.18
George WashingtonA103.693.6945.1645.16-0.36-0.36
RichmondA103.663.6636.6736.67-0.98-0.98
VCUA103.643.6454.8454.840.350.35
Rhode IslandA102.272.2777.4277.421.241.24
La SalleA102.242.2438.7138.71-0.51-0.51
DaytonA102.222.2246.6746.67-0.15-0.15
St. BonaventureA102.202.2077.4277.421.211.21
DavidsonA102.202.2064.5264.520.640.64
FordhamA102.192.1926.6726.67-1.02-1.02
Saint LouisA102.172.1751.6151.610.070.07
DuquesneA102.152.1548.3948.39-0.07-0.07
Morgan St.MEAC1.661.6637.9337.93-0.40-0.40
James MadisonCAA1.611.6130.0030.00-0.65-0.65
Cal St. NorthridgeBW1.591.5914.8114.81-1.12-1.12
BinghamtonAE1.591.5932.1432.14-0.57-0.57
Penn St.B101.591.5960.6160.610.340.34
North Carolina CentralMEAC1.571.5753.3353.330.100.10
William & MaryCAA1.561.5657.1457.140.220.22
Fresno St.MWC1.541.5462.0762.070.370.37
AuburnSEC1.541.5477.4277.420.840.84
Georgia SouthernSB1.521.5260.0060.000.300.30
LafayettePat1.521.5231.0331.03-0.57-0.57
Louisiana TechCUSA1.521.5246.6746.67-0.10-0.10
LouisvilleACC1.521.5259.3859.380.280.28
BucknellPat0.240.2473.5373.530.110.11
Old DominionCUSA0.220.2278.1278.120.120.12
MaineAE0.220.2213.3313.33-0.16-0.16
HarvardIvy0.210.2156.6756.670.030.03
TowsonCAA0.200.2053.3353.330.010.01
DrexelCAA0.170.1737.5037.50-0.04-0.04
Holy CrossPat0.170.1738.7138.71-0.04-0.04
Georgia St.SB0.170.1768.7568.750.060.06
TempleAmer0.160.1653.1253.120.010.01
VirginiaACC0.160.1693.9493.940.140.14
College of CharlestonCAA0.150.1577.4277.420.080.08
Savannah St.MEAC0.150.1543.3343.33-0.02-0.02
HofstraCAA0.150.1560.0060.000.030.03
Delaware St.MEAC0.150.156.676.67-0.13-0.13
DelawareCAA0.150.1538.7138.71-0.03-0.03
HamptonMEAC0.150.1551.6151.610.000.00
PennIvy0.140.1474.1974.190.070.07
PrincetonIvy0.140.1442.8642.86-0.02-0.02
Florida St.ACC0.140.1464.5264.520.040.04
NortheasternCAA0.120.1268.7568.750.050.05
UNC WilmingtonCAA0.120.1230.0030.00-0.05-0.05
Southeast Missouri St.OVC0.120.1241.3841.38-0.02-0.02
VermontAE0.120.1278.7978.790.070.07
Coppin St.MEAC0.120.1215.6215.62-0.08-0.08
Maryland Eastern ShoreMEAC0.120.1216.6716.67-0.08-0.08
UMass LowellAE0.120.1237.9337.93-0.03-0.03
HowardMEAC0.120.1225.8125.81-0.06-0.06
VillanovaBE0.120.1288.2488.240.090.09
UABCUSA0.120.1258.0658.060.020.02
AlabamaSEC0.120.1255.8855.880.010.01
Appalachian St.SB0.120.1241.9441.94-0.02-0.02
GeorgiaSEC0.120.1254.5554.550.010.01
ProvidenceBE0.120.1261.7661.760.030.03
South CarolinaSEC0.120.1250.0050.000.000.00
ColgatePat0.100.1058.0658.060.020.02
ElonCAA0.100.1040.0040.00-0.02-0.02
EvansvilleMVC0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Florida A&MMEAC0.100.1024.2424.24-0.05-0.05
CornellIvy0.100.1040.7440.74-0.02-0.02
New HampshireAE0.100.1027.5927.59-0.04-0.04
Sacramento St.BSky0.100.1016.6716.67-0.07-0.07
NevadaMWC0.100.1079.4179.410.060.06
North Carolina A&TMEAC0.100.1056.2556.250.010.01
Louisiana LafayetteSB0.100.1080.6580.650.060.06
Illinois ChicagoHorz0.100.1050.0050.000.000.00
Wake ForestACC0.090.0935.4835.48-0.03-0.03
QuinnipiacMAAC0.090.0936.3636.36-0.03-0.03
Boston CollegeACC0.090.0955.8855.880.010.01
VMISC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
Ohio St.B100.090.0975.0075.000.050.05
Miami FLACC0.090.0970.9770.970.040.04
NiagaraMAAC0.090.0959.3859.380.020.02
Seton HallBE0.090.0965.6265.620.030.03
PittsburghACC0.090.0925.0025.00-0.05-0.05
MinnesotaB100.090.0946.8846.88-0.01-0.01
NorthwesternB100.090.0945.1645.16-0.01-0.01
Cal PolyBW0.080.0824.1424.14-0.04-0.04
Long Beach St.BW0.080.0841.9441.94-0.01-0.01
HawaiiBW0.080.0853.5753.570.010.01
ArmyPat0.080.0841.3841.38-0.01-0.01
Loyola MDPat0.080.0826.6726.67-0.04-0.04
Montana St.BSky0.080.0836.6736.67-0.02-0.02
AmericanPat0.080.0820.0020.00-0.05-0.05
San Diego St.MWC0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
NavyPat0.080.0861.2961.290.020.02
AlbanyAE0.080.0867.7467.740.030.03
MarshallCUSA0.070.0769.7069.700.030.03
Bethune CookmanMEAC0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
South Carolina St.MEAC0.070.0726.6726.67-0.03-0.03
Cal St. BakersfieldWAC0.070.0733.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Norfolk St.MEAC0.070.0743.3343.33-0.01-0.01
UTSACUSA0.070.0753.3353.330.000.00
CaliforniaP120.070.0725.8125.81-0.04-0.04
Grand CanyonWAC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
ArkansasSEC0.070.0767.6567.650.030.03
CharlotteCUSA0.070.0717.8617.86-0.05-0.05
Middle TennesseeCUSA0.070.0776.6776.670.040.04
South AlabamaSB0.070.0740.0040.00-0.01-0.01
St. John'sBE0.070.0746.8846.88-0.00-0.00
ToledoMAC0.070.0766.6766.670.020.02
Washington St.P120.070.0738.7138.71-0.02-0.02
TexasB120.070.0757.5857.580.010.01
Southern IllinoisMVC0.070.0759.3859.380.010.01
Virginia TechACC0.070.0765.6265.620.020.02
WinthropBSth0.070.0757.1457.140.010.01
BYUWCC0.070.0770.5970.590.030.03
Western CarolinaSC0.070.0736.6736.67-0.02-0.02
MarylandB100.070.0758.0658.060.010.01
MichiganB100.070.0779.4179.410.040.04
RiderMAAC0.070.0770.9770.970.030.03
PurdueB100.070.0782.3582.350.040.04
Cal St. FullertonBW0.050.0562.0762.070.010.01
Idaho St.BSky0.050.0542.8642.86-0.01-0.01
UC DavisBW0.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
UC IrvineBW0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
UC RiversideBW0.050.0524.1424.14-0.03-0.03
UC Santa BarbaraBW0.050.0570.0070.000.020.02
HartfordAE0.050.0558.0658.060.010.01
Stony BrookAE0.050.0538.7138.71-0.01-0.01
UMBCAE0.050.0567.7467.740.020.02
Sacred HeartNEC0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
LIU BrooklynNEC0.050.0551.5251.520.000.00
Air ForceMWC0.050.0534.4834.48-0.02-0.02
Boston UniversityPat0.050.0546.6746.67-0.00-0.00
Colorado St.MWC0.050.0532.2632.26-0.02-0.02
LehighPat0.050.0551.7251.720.000.00
New MexicoMWC0.050.0554.5554.550.000.00
UNLVMWC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
Utah St.MWC0.050.0548.4848.48-0.00-0.00
WyomingMWC0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
TCUB120.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
ManhattanMAAC0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Weber St.BSky0.050.0560.7160.710.010.01
West VirginiaB120.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
MontanaBSky0.050.0577.4277.420.030.03
Saint Peter'sMAAC0.050.0543.7543.75-0.01-0.01
Arkansas St.SB0.050.0530.0030.00-0.02-0.02
East Tennessee St.SC0.050.0571.8871.880.020.02
FIUCUSA0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Little RockSB0.050.0520.0020.00-0.03-0.03
Louisiana MonroeSB0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
North TexasCUSA0.050.0543.3343.33-0.01-0.01
Southern MissCUSA0.050.0540.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Texas St.SB0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
TroySB0.050.0545.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UT ArlingtonSB0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
UTEPCUSA0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
AkronMAC0.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
FloridaSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Jackson St.SWAC0.050.0533.3333.33-0.02-0.02
Mississippi St.SEC0.050.0565.6265.620.020.02
St. Francis NYNEC0.050.0537.9337.93-0.01-0.01
CincinnatiAmer0.050.0588.2488.240.040.04
GeorgetownBE0.050.0550.0050.000.000.00
Jacksonville St.OVC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
MississippiSEC0.050.0537.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Murray St.OVC0.050.0582.7682.760.030.03
IllinoisB100.050.0541.9441.94-0.01-0.01
RutgersB100.050.0542.4242.42-0.01-0.01
KentuckySEC0.050.0570.5970.590.020.02
North CarolinaACC0.050.0571.4371.430.020.02
SienaMAAC0.050.0525.0025.00-0.02-0.02
SyracuseACC0.050.0560.6160.610.010.01
CampbellBSth0.050.0546.4346.43-0.00-0.00
Texas A&MSEC0.050.0562.5062.500.010.01
Grambling St.SWAC0.050.0553.3353.330.000.00
Kansas St.B120.050.0566.6766.670.020.02
MarquetteBE0.050.0559.3859.380.010.01
North FloridaASun0.050.0536.6736.67-0.01-0.01
XavierBE0.050.0584.8584.850.030.03
IndianaB100.050.0551.6151.610.000.00
North Carolina St.ACC0.050.0565.6265.620.010.01
IowaB100.040.0442.4242.42-0.01-0.01
NebraskaB100.040.0468.7568.750.020.02
Eastern WashingtonBSky0.030.0356.2556.250.000.00
Loyola MarymountWCC0.030.0333.3333.33-0.01-0.01
High PointBSth0.030.0340.7440.74-0.00-0.00
UCFAmer0.030.0359.3859.380.000.00
Arkansas Pine BluffSWAC0.030.0340.0040.00-0.01-0.01
Boise St.MWC0.030.0373.3373.330.010.01
Mount St. Mary'sNEC0.030.0353.3353.330.000.00
NJITASun0.030.0342.8642.86-0.00-0.00
OregonP120.030.0364.7164.710.010.01
San Jose St.MWC0.030.0310.3410.34-0.02-0.02
South FloridaAmer0.030.0331.2531.25-0.01-0.01
Alabama St.SWAC0.020.0225.8125.81-0.01-0.01
Ball St.MAC0.020.0258.0658.060.000.00
BradleyMVC0.020.0259.3859.380.000.00
Coastal CarolinaSB0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Florida AtlanticCUSA0.020.0232.1432.14-0.01-0.01
Fort WayneSum0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Kennesaw St.ASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
McNeese St.Slnd0.020.0232.0032.00-0.01-0.01
Miami OHMAC0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
Missouri St.MVC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
Northern KentuckyHorz0.020.0268.9768.970.010.01
OhioMAC0.020.0243.3343.33-0.00-0.00
RadfordBSth0.020.0262.5062.500.010.01
RiceCUSA0.020.0217.2417.24-0.02-0.02
Saint Mary'sWCC0.020.0284.8584.850.020.02
SouthernSWAC0.020.0241.9441.94-0.00-0.00
Stephen F. AustinSlnd0.020.0280.0080.000.010.01
Tennessee MartinOVC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
Tennessee TechOVC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
The CitadelSC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
TulaneAmer0.020.0245.1645.16-0.00-0.00
UMKCWAC0.020.0227.5927.59-0.01-0.01
WagnerNEC0.020.0270.0070.000.010.01
Western KentuckyCUSA0.020.0269.7069.700.010.01
BrownIvy0.020.0238.4638.46-0.01-0.01
BuffaloMAC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
ButlerBE0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
CanisiusMAAC0.020.0265.6265.620.010.01
Charleston SouthernBSth0.020.0242.8642.86-0.00-0.00
ConnecticutAmer0.020.0243.7543.75-0.00-0.00
DetroitHorz0.020.0220.0020.00-0.01-0.01
Florida Gulf CoastASun0.020.0264.5264.520.010.01
Gardner WebbBSth0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
HoustonAmer0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Indiana St.MVC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
IonaMAAC0.020.0260.6160.610.010.01
LamarSlnd0.020.0253.5753.570.000.00
LSUSEC0.020.0254.8454.840.000.00
MercerSC0.020.0253.3353.330.000.00
Mississippi Valley St.SWAC0.020.0212.5012.50-0.02-0.02
MissouriSEC0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
New Mexico St.WAC0.020.0283.3383.330.020.02
Oregon St.P120.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
Robert MorrisNEC0.020.0248.4848.48-0.00-0.00
San FranciscoWCC0.020.0253.1253.120.000.00
SeattleWAC0.020.0256.6756.670.000.00
StetsonASun0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
TennesseeSEC0.020.0275.7675.760.010.01
UNC AshevilleBSth0.020.0261.2961.290.010.01
VanderbiltSEC0.020.0237.5037.50-0.01-0.01
Western MichiganMAC0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
YaleIvy0.020.0250.0050.000.000.00
BryantNEC0.020.029.689.68-0.02-0.02
ClemsonACC0.020.0271.8871.880.010.01
DukeACC0.020.0278.7978.790.010.01
Georgia TechACC0.020.0240.6240.62-0.00-0.00
MemphisAmer0.020.0261.7661.760.010.01
Nebraska OmahaSum0.020.0224.1424.14-0.01-0.01
Notre DameACC0.020.0257.5857.580.000.00
St. Francis PANEC0.020.0257.1457.140.000.00
ColumbiaIvy0.020.0226.9226.92-0.01-0.01
Fairleigh DickinsonNEC0.020.0237.9337.93-0.01-0.01
Michigan St.B100.020.0287.8887.880.020.02
Oral RobertsSum0.020.0228.5728.57-0.01-0.01
WisconsinB100.020.0245.4545.45-0.00-0.00